Reserve releases featured prominently in Q2 earnings results for the Canadian banks, another step forward for the sector in its ongoing credit recovery and just one of the positive catalysts we previously identified for Canadian bank stocks in 2021. In our October webcast, “Canadian Banks: Credit Cycle is (Basically) Over”[1], we outlined our reasoning that a credit-driven recovery in Canadian bank earnings and stocks was beginning.…
Insights: Hamilton ETFs
Australian Banks: Earnings Recovery in Progress; Massive Capital Return Ahead
The recovery of the Australian economy and banks is accelerating. In this insight, we discuss how the Australian banking sector – one of the world’s strongest – has firmly entered the recovery stage of the credit cycle and what that means for share prices. In the past, we have described the Canadian and Australian banking sectors as being akin to fraternal twins given their significant similarities,…
Canadian Banks: Catalyst #2 (Reserve Releases) Approaching
In this Insight, we explain why we believe reserve releases of between $6 and $8 bln for the Canadian banks are coming in 2021, which could have a material impact on share prices. While all credit cycles are unique, they each have distinct stages and this COVID credit cycle has been no different. The first stage was three quarters in duration (Q2-20 to Q4-20) and characterized…
U.S. Banks: M&A Features Prominently on Q1 Calls
[All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted] As we noted in last week’s Insight, U.S. Financials: Why They Remain Attractive (Especially the Mid-Caps), the Q4 2020 pick-up in U.S. bank M&A – a clear sign of management’s conviction that the economic recovery was well underway – has gained momentum in 2021, including several transactions involving Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (tickers: HUM, HUM-U) and Hamilton…
HCAL/HCA: Volatility vs. Individual Cdn Banks
In this One Chart, we compare the volatility profile of 1.25x the Solactive Canadian Bank Mean Reversion index (SOLCBMRT) – which the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (ticker, HCAL) seeks to replicate before fees – to that of the Big-6 Canadian banks. We believe HCAL is a good choice for long-term investors, as its modest leverage offers the potential for higher returns in a steadily growing…
U.S. Financials: Why They Remain Attractive (Especially the Mid-Caps)
[All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted] One year on from the market depths of the pandemic, it is worth a quick review of how far the U.S. financials have come. Notwithstanding the fact Ontario recently entered another province-wide lockdown, things south of the border look far brighter, especially for the holdings in the Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (tickers: HUM, HUM-U) and much of…
Canadian Banks: Are Analysts Underestimating the Recovery (Again)?
In our October webcast, “Canadian Banks – Credit Cycle is (Basically) Over”, we correctly predicted that reserve builds for the Canadian banks would peak in Q4-20, and that the recovery would begin in Q1-21. In fact, we launched the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (HCAL)[1] in October 2020 to give investors a vehicle to capitalize more fully on this recovery while at the same time benefiting…
Is the Future of Banking “Open”?
In today’s insight – part four of our financial innovation series – we discuss open banking, open APIs[1] and how the underlying technology has supported the rise of fintech competitors in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. With Canada expected to introduce open banking regulations in the near to medium term, the topic is timely. Part I: Can Standalone Digital Banks Disrupt the Incumbents? (January 14, 2021) Part…
Canadian Banks: Q1-21 Takeaways – One Catalyst Down, Two to Go
In October 2020, we launched the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (ticker: HCAL), a modestly levered version of our Canadian bank mean reversion strategy ETF (ticker: HCA), in anticipation of a credit-driven recovery for Canadian bank earnings and stocks. In our view, with its 25% leverage, HCAL offers investors an opportunity to benefit as the recovery gains traction (in the near-to-medium term), as well as for…
Video: Canadian Banks – Three Potential Catalysts for 2021
Watch Rob Wessel, Managing Partner of Hamilton ETFs, give an update on three potential catalysts for the Canadian banks in 2021. Click the video below to watch.
Market Data M&A Accelerates Pivot to a Digital Future
In today’s insight – part of our financial innovation series – we highlight how a string of large, transformational acquisitions by market data and technology companies in the Hamilton Financials Innovation ETF (HFT) over the course of 2019 and 2020 have boosted the ETF’s exposure to secular investment themes brought forward by the pandemic. Crucially, the acquisitions provide investors in HFT exposure to emerging themes with…
Four Themes Driving Innovation in Global Financials
In our series on financial innovation, we discuss key issues relating to financial technology and innovation impacting the global financial services sector in general and the Hamilton Financials Innovation ETF (HFT) in particular. Launched on June 1, 2020, HFT invests in a blue-chip portfolio of 30+ established global financial services firms benefiting from powerful, secular trends amplified by the pandemic such as growth of digital payments, digitization…