Insights: United States

Financials: Does COVID-19 Represent a Growth Scare, Credit Event or Crisis?

Since we launched our first ETF in January 2016, there have been four significant macro corrections in four years. None of those large and painful corrections represented a crisis, insofar as the declines did not represent a threat to the solvency of the financial sector, either from a lack of liquidity or the destruction of capital. Rather, they were related to the market rapidly (and, in…

One Chart: When/Where the Canadian Banks Spent US$32 bln on U.S. Banks

All Canadian bank investors know that expansion into the U.S. personal and commercial (“P&C”) banking sector remains the focal point of capital deployment for the Canadian banks. In fact, US banking has been – by far – the largest destination of capital deployment since 2004 (when TD Bank acquired a majority stake in Banknorth), with the Canadian banks having spent a huge US$30 bln. The chart…

One Chart: U.S. Bank M&A Doubles in 2019 (and Why We Expect More)

In the 10+ years since the global financial crisis, deal values in U.S. bank M&A have been slow to reach pre-crisis levels. This is notable since in the nearly 25 years preceding the financial crisis bank M&A was an important theme (particularly between 1995 to 2007) as the chart below highlights. Note to Reader: This Insight includes references to certain Hamilton ETFs that were active at…

U.S. Bank M&A: Another Accretive MOE, Another Positive Market Reaction

On Monday, this year’s third (sizable) U.S. bank merger-of-equals (“MOE”) was announced, continuing a trend we expected following similar transactions early in 2019. We have previously written that after a multi-year period of muted merger activity that U.S. bank consolidation – particularly among mid-cap banks – was poised to accelerate. We have cited this theme as impacting the U.S. mid-cap financials sector generally and the banking…

U.S. Mid-Caps: Yield Curve False Alarm? 9th Straight Quarter of 10%+ EPS Growth

Since Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) (ticker: HFMU.U) was launched in September 2017, the yield curve has flattened. Some market participants have taken this broader market signal to be an accurate predictor of a recession and by extension a credit cycle for banks. However, those interpreting the flattening of the yield curve (spread between the yield on the US 10 year and the Fed funds…

Notes from Dallas: Big Things Happen Here

We recently returned from a visit to Dallas (our third in four years) where we met with eight banks operating in the Lone Star State. Five of the eight have footprints beyond Texas, and hence offered a fuller picture of the attractiveness of the Texas economy and business outlook (hint, there’s a reason they’re in Texas). Of the banks we met, three are holdings in our…

A Day in the Life of the U.S. Financials – Notes from New York

Three days in New York gave us the opportunity to meet with a broad-based group of financial services companies, largely based in the U.S., but several operating globally. Included in the mix were several holdings of the Hamilton Global Financials Yield ETF (ticker: HFY) and the Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) (ticker: HFMU.U), both of which invest in the broader financials services sector. The former…

What U.S. Investment Bankers and Banks are Saying about M&A

At Hamilton ETFs, the prospects for M&A is one the supporting factors for our investment thesis for the U.S. mid-cap banks, in which both the Hamilton Global Bank ETF (ticker: HBG) and Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) (ticker: HFMU.U) are heavily-weighted[1]. Note to Reader: This Insight includes references to certain Hamilton ETFs that were active at the time of writing. On June 29, 2020, the…

Notes from Washington, DC – Investigating One of the Wealthiest MSAs in the Country

We recently had the opportunity to meet senior management of over a dozen U.S. mid-cap banks headquartered in the Washington, DC area. Anchored by the capital city, the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria MSA (Washington MSA) is the sixth largest U.S. MSA ([1]) with real GDP of US$507 bln ([2]) and a population of 6.3 mln. Importantly, it is also the second wealthiest MSA ([3]) in the entire country, supported…

Scotia’s Pacific Alliance and Five Takeaways on Global Growth

Last week, Bank of Nova Scotia reported its Q3 results and its International Banking division generated solid double-digit earnings growth, supported by a strong economic backdrop and acquisitions. Within this segment is the Bank’s operations in the Pacific Alliance, the Latin American trade bloc that includes Peru, Chile, Columbia, and Mexico. This very large emerging markets platform has over $100 bln in loans, generates earnings of…

Global Exchanges, E-Brokers and Fin-Tech: Secular and Structural Growth Drivers Abound

We had the opportunity to meet the management of over a dozen global exchanges, e-brokers and fin-tech firms at a recent conference in New York. Global exchanges and e-brokers have benefitted from multiple secular, regulatory and cyclical tailwinds in recent years, which have resulted in strong growth trajectory and robust stock returns. The Hamilton Capital Global Financials Yield ETF (HFY) [1] has ~4% exposure to exchanges and e-brokers,…

Notes from Nashville: Titans of Growth

We recently travelled to Nashville to meet with a small group of Tennessee-based banks, all of which operate in the state capital, and half of which are holdings in the Hamilton Capital Global Bank ETF (ticker: HBG) and the Hamilton Capital U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) (ticker: HFMU.U). We also had an opportunity to speak with the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. It was a great…

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