Insights: Banks

Canadian Banks: History Points to a Stronger 2024 (After Two Tough Years)

At the end of August, the S&P/TSX Canadian Diversified Bank Total Return Index (“Canadian bank index”) was lower versus two years earlier – a rare event. In fact, since its inception in May 2002, the Canadian bank index has had a negative rolling two-year return at just 24 month-ends (out of 232 month-ends)[1]. Historically, such an occurrence has represented a buying opportunity. Over the same 20+…

Canadian Banks: Three Ways the Banks Might “Clean Up” fQ4 (and Improve f2024)

The Canadian bank index is at roughly the same level it was two years ago – a very rare event[1]. Coming out of COVID, the sector rallied to a new peak in February 2022 when inflationary concerns took the index down over 20% in the following months, to levels it has remained on and off since. Part of the reason Canadian bank stocks have not risen…

Canadian Banks: Opportunities and Risks in 2023

The Canadian banks had a very tough 2022 falling 8.9% – just the 5th decline in the last 20 years, which includes financial crisis years of 2007 and 2008[1] (the sector even rose 3.8% in 2020, despite COVID). The main reason for the decline last year was falling price-to-earnings multiples caused by the market’s concern that global central banks could cause a recession by aggressively raising…

U.S. Financials: Mid-Caps Look Attractive, Despite Clouds (4 Reasons to Invest)

The U.S. mid-cap financials held up very well in 2022, in what was a very difficult year for the global financials. Risks that had not been seen for decades – like inflation – have returned, and the market’s fears that rising central bank rates could trigger a recession remain high. This has resulted in significant compression in price-to-earnings multiples as the market anticipates clouds ahead. Yet,…

HBA – Top Performing Financials ETF in Canada (and 5 Reasons to Invest)

In 2022, our blue-chip Hamilton Australian Banks Equal Weight Index ETF (HBA) outperformed its 38 competitor financials ETFs, by rising ~1%, making it the top performing financials ETF in Canada – foreign or domestic[1]. This is the second year in a row that Hamilton ETFs had the top performing financials ETF in Canada[2]. In fact, HBA – which has a yield of 5.8% – was the…

HUM – Top Performing U.S. Financials ETF – Again

Our Hamilton U.S. Small/Mid-Cap Financials ETF (HUM, HUM.U) was the top performing U.S. financials ETF in Canada – again[1]. HUM has now outperformed its competitor ETFs over the following periods: since inception[2], in the last two years, full year 2021, and full year 2022. In 2021, it was the top performing financials ETF in Canada – foreign or domestic[3]. In the last two years – which…

HFG – Top Performing Global Financials ETF in Canada

Our Hamilton Global Financials ETF (HFG) was the top performing ETF in its category in 2022 and outperformed its domestic competitors and the iShares Global Financials ETF (IXG) over the last two years. During that period, HFG generated a total return of 17.5%, beating every competitor ETF by at least 2.8%[1]. Importantly, not only did HFG outperform its competitor global financials ETFs and the index in…

Canadian Banks: Three Things to Watch in Q4

Even with the strong November, Canadian bank stocks are down ~15% peak-to-trough, reflecting the market’s concern of a possible global recession caused by central banks aggressively raising interest rates with the goal of taming inflation. At the same time, central bankers are also engaging in the relatively new policy of quantitative tightening (the effect of which cannot be quantified). The decline in Canadian bank share prices…

Canadian Banks: Should Investors be (More) Worried? (fQ3 in Charts)

As the market has priced in a higher risk of a recession, Canadian bank stocks have declined ~20% in just 5 months, including a ~10% decline since the sector started reporting Q3 results in late August. The market is worried that central banks will cause a recession as they aggressively raise interest rates to tame inflation. Further complicating their job is that central banks are simultaneously…

Canadian Banks: TD Buys FHN – A Very Strong Fit

After much speculation in recent years about its appetite for additional U.S. bank M&A, TD offered ~US$13.4 bln in cash to buy First Horizon Corporation (FHN)[1], a Tennessee-based regional bank, in late February, almost 15 years since its last “large” U.S. bank acquisition – Commerce Bancorp. In our view, the acquisition offers many strategic benefits given FHN: (i) is an optimal size, adding material scale with…

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