Insights: Banks

Canadian Banks: How High Can Dividends Go? (and HCAL Outperforms)

Canadian bank dividends, in our view, are poised to rise – a lot. In August, before Q3 earnings season, we argued there was no policy rationale for the continuing moratorium on dividend increases (see “Canadian Banks: Why OSFI Should Lift its Dividend Cap Now”). At the time, earnings and capital were already at all time highs. Moreover, the banks had set aside an enormous ~$21.4 bln…

Canadian Banks: Record Earnings/Capital; Still in Catalyst #2 (Q3 2021 in Charts)

Q3 earnings trends for the Canadian banks were again strong with record earnings and capital levels, while the ‘three catalyst’ investment thesis – normalization of profits, reserve releases and higher margins – we laid out for the sector in February continues to play out almost exactly as predicted[1]. We believe the banks are still supported by Catalyst #2. Before we discuss Canadian bank results in more…

Canadian Banks: Why OSFI Should Lift its Dividend Cap Now

Before we discuss why the Canadian regulator OSFI should lift its cap on dividends as soon as possible, we would like to highlight the recent launch of the Hamilton Enhanced Multi-Sector Covered Call ETF (ticker: HDIV), an equal weight portfolio of seven established covered call ETFs with a sector mix broadly consistent with that of the S&P/TSX 60. HDIV utilizes modest 25% cash leverage to support…

Canadian Banks: Reserve Releases Dominate Results; Q2-21 Takeaways (in Charts)

Reserve releases featured prominently in Q2 earnings results for the Canadian banks, another step forward for the sector in its ongoing credit recovery and just one of the positive catalysts we previously identified for Canadian bank stocks in 2021. In our October webcast, “Canadian Banks: Credit Cycle is (Basically) Over”[1], we outlined our reasoning that a credit-driven recovery in Canadian bank earnings and stocks was beginning.…

Australian Banks: Earnings Recovery in Progress; Massive Capital Return Ahead

The recovery of the Australian economy and banks is accelerating. In this insight, we discuss how the Australian banking sector – one of the world’s strongest – has firmly entered the recovery stage of the credit cycle and what that means for share prices. In the past, we have described the Canadian and Australian banking sectors as being akin to fraternal twins given their significant similarities,…

Canadian Banks: Catalyst #2 (Reserve Releases) Approaching

In this Insight, we explain why we believe reserve releases of between $6 and $8 bln for the Canadian banks are coming in 2021, which could have a material impact on share prices. While all credit cycles are unique, they each have distinct stages and this COVID credit cycle has been no different. The first stage was three quarters in duration (Q2-20 to Q4-20) and characterized…

U.S. Banks: M&A Features Prominently on Q1 Calls

[All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted] As we noted in last week’s Insight, U.S. Financials: Why They Remain Attractive (Especially the Mid-Caps), the Q4 2020 pick-up in U.S. bank M&A – a clear sign of management’s conviction that the economic recovery was well underway – has gained momentum in 2021, including several transactions involving Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (tickers: HUM, HUM-U) and Hamilton…

U.S. Financials: Why They Remain Attractive (Especially the Mid-Caps)

[All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted] One year on from the market depths of the pandemic, it is worth a quick review of how far the U.S. financials have come. Notwithstanding the fact Ontario recently entered another province-wide lockdown, things south of the border look far brighter, especially for the holdings in the Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (tickers: HUM, HUM-U) and much of…

U.S. Banks: The Return of M&A – A Clear Sign of Bankers’ Conviction in the Recovery

All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. As the year draws to a close, the whipsaw nature of 2020 will not soon be forgotten. When the pandemic struck earlier this year and businesses shuttered under direct orders by various governments, how long and how deep the resulting global economic downturn would be was next to impossible to forecast with any sense of accuracy. As businesses…

Global Financials: The Most Attractive/Important Investment Themes in 2021

Hamilton Global Financials ETF (HFG), which launched on June 26, 2020, is focused on investing in high quality global financial stocks with strong balance sheets, diversified income streams and exposure to favorable, medium- and long-term cyclical and secular trends. This focus aims to provide Canadian investors with diversified exposure to the most attractive themes within the global financial sector while maintaining a volatility profile not materially…

Australian Banks: Entering Recovery Stage of Credit Cycle (in 6 Charts)

In this insight, we share 6 charts that, in our view, indicate that the Australian banking sector – one of the world’s strongest – has entered the recovery stage of the credit cycle, which should be supportive of share prices. In the past, we have described the Canadian and Australian banking sectors as being akin to fraternal twins given their significant similarities, as well as those…

Australian Banks: Outperformance vs Canada (akin to Canadian Bank #4)

In this insight we review the performance of the Australian banks versus the Canadian banks and discuss why Canadian bank investors should consider the Hamilton Australian Bank Equal-Weight Index ETF (ticker: HBA). Launched on June 29, 2020, HBA aims to replicate (net of fees) the performance of the Solactive Australian Bank Equal-Weight Index TR (SOLBAEWT) and is currency hedged. The SOLBAEWT index, which tracks the performance…

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