Insights: Other Financials

U.S. Financials | Analysts vs. the Markets (as Fundamentals/Stock Prices Diverge)

This has been a tough month for the financials, particularly banks. What made this correction unusual is that throughout October, the financials continued to post very high earnings growth, and with minimal downgrades in estimates/target prices, the ingredients for a sharp sell-off were largely absent. Of the 270 financial services stocks covered by the U.S. broker-dealer, Sandler O’Neill + Partners (SOP), over 70% met or beat…

Global Exchanges and E-Brokers: favourable secular and cyclical themes

We met the management of over a dozen global exchanges and e-brokers at a recent conference in New York. Global exchanges and e-brokers have benefitted from secular, regulatory and cyclical tailwinds over the past decade, which has resulted in robust earnings growth and driven strong stock outperformance.  The Hamilton Capital Global Financials Yield ETF (HFY) which is outperforming its benchmark by 270 bps since inception and has a…

Are REITs Set to Underperform the Financials?

We are pleased to announce the launch of the Hamilton Capital Global Financials Yield ETF (HFY), which will begin trading on the TSX on Tuesday, February 7th. The objective of the ETF is to offer attractive distribution potential. Put differently, our aspiration is for the ETF to have “REIT-like yields, but with positive rate sensitivity”. Although REITs were recently separated from certain financial services indices (for…

Business Development Corps: Notes from NYC Field Trip

We recently travelled to New York City to meet with executives from a group of business development companies (“BDCs”), a diverse category of “other financials” focused on yields. There are over 30 publicly traded BDCs in our investable universe, with market capitalizations ranging from ~$100 mln to several billion dollars. Yields for these financials are generally over 8%.

European Trip to London, Frankfurt, and Madrid: Notes from the Field

A recent trip to Europe – 3 days in London at a European financial services conference, and 1 day field trips to Frankfurt and Madrid – gave us an opportunity to meet with executives from more than 25 financial services companies and agencies (including 19 banks and 3 insurers) representing 9 countries. Notably, the trip reinforced our European investment thesis, although a disparity of country and…

Why the Canadian Financials Will Likely Underperform their Global Peers

We are often asked for our thoughts on the Canadian financials relative to the global financials. Regular readers of our work will know that we favour financial services companies outside of Canada. There are many reasons, but the most compelling is that the Canadian financials have fully recovered (both in terms of valuation and earnings) from the most recent cycle, while the U.S. and global financials…

Are MICs the “Canary in the Coal Mine”?

Over the past several months, there has been a lot of discussion about the potential for Canadian home prices to fall and the possible impact on the Canadian financials (and banks, in particular). After a near-vertical rise in over the past decade (see chart), Canadian home prices appear vulnerable to a decline. The speculated impact of a decline on the domestic financial services sector has ranged…

For MICs, Time to Exercise Caution?

We were recently asked to look at and give our opinion on mortgage investment corporations, or MICs. Given the ultra-low interest rate environment, high yielding MICs have become a popular product among retail investors. What we found behind these high yield products was concerning to us, particularly given the potential for a generalist investor to significantly underestimate the actual credit risk of certain MICs.

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