On October 2^nd, we had the pleasure of hosting Ed Yardeni for a fireside chat, moderated by Jennifer Mersereau and Pat Sommerville, Co-CEOs of Hamilton ETFs. The conversation explored his “Roaring 2020s” thesis, highlighting the transformative forces shaping this decade. See below for some of the highlights:

• CLICK HERE to download Ed’s Roaring 2020s Chart Book
• CLICK HERE to subscribe to Yardeni QuickTakes (free trial)

The Roaring 2020s: Resilience & Productivity

 

• Historical perspective: Yardeni compares the 2020s to the 1920s, with both decades beginning in crisis and evolving into periods of innovation and expansion.
• Digital revolution: Technological progress from mainframes and PCs to cloud computing and AI is driving long-term productivity gains. He views AI as evolutionary, building on decades of advancement.
• Economic resilience: Despite the pandemic, inflation, rate hikes, and tariffs, U.S. GDP, corporate earnings, and equity markets have reached record highs, reflecting the strength of the private sector.
• Market outlook: Yardeni expects continued productivity growth and innovation to support the economy through the rest of the decade, setting the stage for a potential “Roaring 2030s.”

 

Fed Policy, Inflation & Labour Market Dynamics

 

• Inflation target debate: Yardeni argues that the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target is too restrictive and should be raised to 3 percent, emphasizing the need for policy focused on financial stability.
• Policy stance: He remains opposed to near-term rate cuts, noting that the economy is performing well and does not require additional stimulus.
• Labour market trends: A skills mismatch and the impact of AI on entry-level jobs are distorting employment data, but overall unemployment remains historically low.
• Productivity effect: Downward revisions to employment combined with stronger GDP growth suggest productivity gains are exceeding expectations.

 

Markets, AI & Global Risks

 

• Investor sentiment: Many investors remain cautious despite strong markets, citing concerns about deficits and government spending, yet demand for U.S. Treasuries remains robust.
• Market leadership: Concentration in large-cap technology stocks is viewed as a feature of this cycle, not a flaw, given the strength and profitability of the leading companies.
• AI and investment cycle: Rising data generation from technologies such as autonomous vehicles and robotics continues to justify high levels of capital spending in data centers and semiconductors.
• Gold and risk factors: Central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and declining confidence in fiat assets have supported gold’s breakout, with Yardeni projecting potential for further gains.

 

Sector Positioning & Outlook

 

• Sector views: Yardeni maintains overweight positions in information technology, communication services, industrials, and financials, with reduced exposure to energy.
• Earnings outlook: Strong profitability in financials, supported by rising loan demand and robust investment banking activity, reinforces confidence in the sector.
• Market valuation: The S&P 500 trading near 22–23 times earnings is considered sustainable if economic resilience continues and recession risks remain low.
• Global perspective: While U.S. equities remain the core allocation, investors may consider selective exposure to international and mid-cap equities for diversification and valuation opportunities.

 

Key Charts & Closing Takeaways

 

• CLICK HERE to download Ed’s Roaring 2020s Chart Book
• Household wealth: U.S. household net worth exceeds $160 trillion, with baby boomers holding roughly half, supporting ongoing consumer spending and intergenerational transfers.
• Capital spending: Real capital expenditures are at record highs, with over half directed toward technology. Data centers and semiconductor investment are offsetting weakness in traditional office construction.
• Profit margins: Corporate profit margins remain near record levels despite tariffs and higher interest rates, underscoring the economy’s adaptability.
• Long-term optimism: Yardeni concludes that resilience, productivity, and innovation continue to underpin equity markets, while risks such as Fed independence and geopolitics warrant monitoring, but do not alter his overall constructive outlook.

 

Hamilton ETFs: Investment Ideas

 

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Disclaimer:

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments in exchange traded funds (ETFs) managed by Hamilton ETFs. Please read the prospectus before investing. Indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in per unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or distributions and does not take into account sales, redemptions, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Only the returns for periods of one year or greater are annualized returns. ETFs are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

Certain statements contained in this video may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking information may relate to a future outlook and anticipated distributions, events or results and may include statements regarding future financial performance. In some cases, forward-looking information can be identified by terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “intend” or other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Actual results may vary from such forward-looking information. Hamilton ETFs undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or other such factors which affect this information, except as required by law.

[1] An estimate of the annualized yield an investor would receive if the most recent distribution remained unchanged for the next 12 months, stated as a percentage of the price per unit on September 30, 2025. The yield calculation excludes any additional year end distributions and does not include reinvested distributions.