{"id":11567,"date":"2019-04-18T14:37:19","date_gmt":"2019-04-18T18:37:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hamiltonetfs.com\/?p=11567"},"modified":"2020-07-06T13:42:47","modified_gmt":"2020-07-06T17:42:47","slug":"canadian-banks-why-volatility-will-likely-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hamiltonetfs.com\/canadian-banks-why-volatility-will-likely-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Banks: Why Volatility Will Likely Rise (and a Comment on Mean Reversion)"},"content":{"rendered":"
In October 2018, we launched the Hamilton Capital Canadian Bank Variable-Weight ETF (ticker: HCB)<\/strong>, which seeks to benefit from the historical mean reversion tendencies of the Big-6 banks, especially in times of greater market volatility. At the end of each month, the three most oversold banks are rebalanced to represent ~80% of HCB<\/strong>, while the three most overbought banks are rebalanced to 20%. HCB<\/strong>\u2019s objective is to \u2013 over time \u2013 generate higher returns with lower volatility relative to an equal-weight basket of the Big-6 while providing monthly dividends.<\/p>\n Note to Reader<\/strong>: This Insight includes references to certain Hamilton ETFs that were active at the time of writing. On June 29, 2020, the following mergers took place: (i) Hamilton Global Financials Yield ETF and Hamilton Global Bank ETF into the Hamilton Global Financials ETF (HFG)<\/strong><\/a>, (ii) Hamilton Australian Financials Yield ETF into the Hamilton Australian Bank Equal-Weight Index ETF (HBA)<\/strong><\/a>; (iii) Hamilton Canadian Bank Variable-Weight ETF into the Hamilton Canadian Bank Mean Reversion Index ETF (HCA)<\/strong><\/a>, and (iv) Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) into the Hamilton U.S. Mid\/Small-Cap Financials ETF (HUM)<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n We believe that in the next two years the Canadian banks are likely to experience higher volatility. This could be beneficial to HCB<\/strong> since the benefits of mean reversion have historically been greatest in periods of heightened volatility.<\/p>\n Why do we expect volatility for the Canadian banks to increase?<\/p>\n First<\/u><\/strong>, acquisition risk is rising for those Canadian banks with U.S. commercial banking platforms<\/strong>, specifically, BMO, RY, CM, and most importantly, TD. Recent high profile bank mergers south of the border suggest that, after several years of limited activity, U.S. bank M&A (of size) is poised to accelerate. Given the immense strategic significance of their U.S. expansion strategies, the Canadian banks with U.S. platforms (combined commercial bank assets of over US$500 billion) will likely feel pressure to continue building these platforms through acquisitions.<\/p>\n In the last 20 years, one constant in bank valuations has been the tendency for multiple compression\/volatility post large acquisitions. It is very easy to envision an acquiring bank losing 0.5x-1.0x of its relative price-to-earnings multiple after announcing a larger transaction. Last year was a good example; BNS underperformed its peers, primarily in response to its Canadian wealth management acquisitions1