Last week, we hosted our 7th Market Outlook with Ed Yardeni where the prominent Wall Street strategist provided his current thoughts on the U.S. economy and stock market, including three potential market scenarios and his probabilities for each. See below for a replay and key takeaways from the webcast.
Economic Expansion
Ed remains optimistic and attributed continued growth to technological advancements, corporate earnings strength, and resilient consumer spending, which have so far staved off a widely anticipated recession.
- 55% probability of a “Roaring Twenties” scenario
- 25% probability of 1990s-style melt-up
- 20% probability of 1970s-style stagflation
S&P 500 Forecasts
- 7000 by year-end 2025
- 8000 by year-end 2026
- 10000 by the end of the decade (2029)
Artificial Intelligence
Ed emphasized the transformative role of AI and innovation in driving long-term productivity gains, drawing comparisons to previous technological booms. AI’s widespread adoption, he argued, could enhance efficiency across industries, supporting economic growth in the years ahead.
Trade Tensions
Ed discussed the “America First” trade agenda, highlighting its role in national security policy and its potential economic consequences. While trade tensions remain a concern, particularly with China and Mexico, the U.S. continues to view Canada as a key partner. However, ongoing tariff strategies and policy shifts could introduce inflationary pressures and impact global supply chains.
China
China’s economic challenges, including a struggling property sector and structural weaknesses, remain a focal point. Ed cautioned that escalating trade tensions could further strain China’s fragile economy, with potential ripple effects on global markets and investor sentiment.
Bond Market
Ed noted that the 10-year bond yield has risen to 4.5%, with the 2-10 yield curve widening to 35 basis points. He expects yields to remain in this range, fluctuating slightly based on macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Concerns over fiscal policy and government spending remain prominent, as rising debt levels could pose long-term challenges. He referenced ongoing debates over inefficiencies in public expenditures, warning that fiscal imbalances may become a growing risk factor for markets.
HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ — The Lineup
| Ticker | Name | |
| CMVP | HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ Canadian Dividend Index ETF | 0% management fee through Jan. 31, 2026[1] |
| SMVP | HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ U.S. Dividend Index ETF | 0% management fee through Jan. 31, 2026[1] |
| CWIN | HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ Enhanced Canadian Dividend ETF | CMVP + modest 25% leverage |
| SWIN | HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ Enhanced U.S. Dividend ETF | SMVP + modest 25% leverage |
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[1] Annual management fee of 0.19% is rebated to an effective management fee of 0.00% until at least January 31, 2026.