Commentary: HCAL

Canadian Banks: History Points to a Stronger 2024 (after Two Tough Years)

At the end of August, the S&P/TSX Canadian Diversified Bank Total Return Index (“Canadian bank index”) was lower versus two years earlier – a rare event. In fact, since its inception in May 2002, the Canadian bank index has had a negative rolling two-year return at just 24 month-ends (out of 232 month-ends)[1]. Historically, such an occurrence has represented a buying opportunity. Over the same 20+…

Canadian Banks: Three Ways the Banks Might “Clean Up” fQ4 (and Improve f2024)

The Canadian bank index is at roughly the same level it was two years ago – a very rare event[1]. Coming out of COVID, the sector rallied to a new peak in February 2022 when inflationary concerns took the index down over 20% in the following months, to levels it has remained on and off since. Part of the reason Canadian bank stocks have not risen…

Video: Canadian Banks – Weathering the Storm (15 min)

Watch our latest Q&A video update on the Canadian banks with Rob Wessel.  In this 15-minute video, Rob provides our key takeaways from Q2 earnings, thoughts on depressed valuations, and potential risks/catalysts for the sector moving forward.               Disclaimer: Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with an investment in exchange traded funds (ETFs) managed by Hamilton ETFs.…

Video: Canadian Banks – What’s Next?

Watch our 15-minute Q&A video below with Rob Wessel on the Canadian banks, where we discuss key issues including macro volatility, depressed valuations, and recent events in the U.S. CLICK HERE for information on HEB, the lowest-fee Canadian bank ETF.   Disclaimer: Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with an investment in exchange traded funds (ETFs) managed by Hamilton ETFs. Please read the…

Hamilton ETFs Announces Unitholder Approval for Proposed Investment Objective Change for Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF

TORONTO, February 15, 2023 – Hamilton Capital Partners Inc. (“Hamilton ETFs”) is pleased to announce the results of the special meeting (the “Meeting”) for Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (TSX: HCAL) (the “ETF”) that was held today, February 15, 2023. As previously announced, the Meeting was convened for unitholders to consider and vote upon a proposal to change the investment objective of the ETF (the “Investment…

Canadian Banks: Opportunities and Risks in 2023

The Canadian banks had a very tough 2022 falling 8.9% – just the 5th decline in the last 20 years, which includes financial crisis years of 2007 and 2008[1] (the sector even rose 3.8% in 2020, despite COVID). The main reason for the decline last year was falling price-to-earnings multiples caused by the market’s concern that global central banks could cause a recession by aggressively raising…

Hamilton ETFs Announces Unitholder Meeting for Proposed Objective Change for Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF

Toronto, Ontario – January 13, 2023 – Hamilton Capital Partners Inc. (“Hamilton ETFs” or the “Manager”) announced today a proposal to change the investment objective (the “Proposed Change”) of Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (TSX: HCAL) (the “ETF”). Hamilton ETFs is the trustee, manager and portfolio advisor of the ETF. The Proposed Change is as follows: Current Investment Objective Proposed New Investment Objective The investment objective…

Canadian Banks: Three Things to Watch in Q4

Even with the strong November, Canadian bank stocks are down ~15% peak-to-trough, reflecting the market’s concern of a possible global recession caused by central banks aggressively raising interest rates with the goal of taming inflation. At the same time, central bankers are also engaging in the relatively new policy of quantitative tightening (the effect of which cannot be quantified). The decline in Canadian bank share prices…

Canadian Banks: Should Investors be (More) Worried? (fQ3 in Charts)

As the market has priced in a higher risk of a recession, Canadian bank stocks have declined ~20% in just 5 months, including a ~10% decline since the sector started reporting Q3 results in late August. The market is worried that central banks will cause a recession as they aggressively raise interest rates to tame inflation. Further complicating their job is that central banks are simultaneously…

Canadian Bank CEO Event with RBC & TD

On June 9, 2022, we hosted a panel discussion on the Canadian banks with Dave McKay and Bharat Masrani, CEOs of Royal Bank and TD Bank, respectively. During the panel discussion, the CEOs discussed their views on a variety of topics, including the current macro environment, domestic banking, housing, consumer debt, and their international platforms.     Disclaimer: Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all…

Canadian Banks: TD Buys FHN – A Very Strong Fit

After much speculation in recent years about its appetite for additional U.S. bank M&A, TD offered ~US$13.4 bln in cash to buy First Horizon Corporation (FHN)[1], a Tennessee-based regional bank, in late February, almost 15 years since its last “large” U.S. bank acquisition – Commerce Bancorp. In our view, the acquisition offers many strategic benefits given FHN: (i) is an optimal size, adding material scale with…

Canadian Banks: 2022 starts with M&A; Recovery Continues (fQ1 in Charts)

2022 is off to a noteworthy start for the Canadian banks, with long-awaited M&A announcements and another strong earnings season. In December, we posted our outlook for the year, “Canadian Banks: Five Possible Drivers in 2022”, in which we stated that the cyclical recovery was not yet over. We identified five factors that we expected would influence bank share prices during 2022: (i) reserve releases, (ii)…

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