Commentary: HFIN

Canadian Banks: Rob Wessel on BNN Bloomberg

Rob Wessel was on BNN Bloomberg last week for the beginning of Canadian bank earnings to discuss TD Bank results and what they could mean for the rest of the group. He also provided his thoughts on: (i) TD Bank’s anti-money laundering probe; (ii) risks of mortgage resets; and (iii) the catalysts needed to drive better performance from Canadian bank stocks going forward. BNN Bloomberg: Rob…

Video: History Favours the Canadian Banks in 2024

The Canadian banks had a negative return of more than 10% for the 2-year period ending October 31st*. In this 5-minute video, Rob Wessel discusses how rare of an event this has been over the last 20 years, what it has meant in the past, and what this could mean for the Canadian banks in 2024. Tax Loss Switch Ideas: Below we highlight our suite of…

Canadian Banks Q4 Earnings: Does Worse = Better?

Does worse = better for the Canadian banks when they report Q4 earnings later this month? In this 10-minute video, Rob Wessel discusses three ways the banks might “clean-up” fQ4 earnings to try to set the stage for an improved f2024. Tax Loss Switch Ideas: With Canadian banks down over the last two years and trading at depressed valuations, we highlight our suite of Canadian bank ETFs…

Video: Canadian Banks – Further Evidence of Rising Political and Regulatory Risk

With growing political opposition to the RBC/HSBC deal being approved, we provide an 8-minute video with Rob Wessel discussing the implications of rising political and regulatory risk for the Canadian banks, a theme that has been growing over the years. In particular, we talk about the implications to RBC if the deal is not approved, the various forms of regulatory risk, and what this theme means…

Canadian Banks: History Points to a Stronger 2024 (After Two Tough Years)

At the end of August, the S&P/TSX Canadian Diversified Bank Total Return Index (“Canadian bank index”) was lower versus two years earlier – a rare event. In fact, since its inception in May 2002, the Canadian bank index has had a negative rolling two-year return at just 24 month-ends (out of 232 month-ends)[1]. Historically, such an occurrence has represented a buying opportunity. Over the same 20+…

Canadian Banks: Three Ways the Banks Might “Clean Up” fQ4 (and Improve f2024)

The Canadian bank index is at roughly the same level it was two years ago – a very rare event[1]. Coming out of COVID, the sector rallied to a new peak in February 2022 when inflationary concerns took the index down over 20% in the following months, to levels it has remained on and off since. Part of the reason Canadian bank stocks have not risen…

Canadian Banks: Opportunities and Risks in 2023

The Canadian banks had a very tough 2022 falling 8.9% – just the 5th decline in the last 20 years, which includes financial crisis years of 2007 and 2008[1] (the sector even rose 3.8% in 2020, despite COVID). The main reason for the decline last year was falling price-to-earnings multiples caused by the market’s concern that global central banks could cause a recession by aggressively raising…

Canadian Banks: Three Things to Watch in Q4

Even with the strong November, Canadian bank stocks are down ~15% peak-to-trough, reflecting the market’s concern of a possible global recession caused by central banks aggressively raising interest rates with the goal of taming inflation. At the same time, central bankers are also engaging in the relatively new policy of quantitative tightening (the effect of which cannot be quantified). The decline in Canadian bank share prices…

Canadian Banks: Should Investors be (More) Worried? (fQ3 in Charts)

As the market has priced in a higher risk of a recession, Canadian bank stocks have declined ~20% in just 5 months, including a ~10% decline since the sector started reporting Q3 results in late August. The market is worried that central banks will cause a recession as they aggressively raise interest rates to tame inflation. Further complicating their job is that central banks are simultaneously…

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