Commentary: HUM

U.S. Mid-Cap Financials — HUM Outperforms with Considerable Recovery Upside Remaining

The U.S. financials have been showing strong momentum this year outperforming the S&P 500[1], fueled by increased economic optimism and investor sentiment. The Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (HUM) has been the top performing U.S. financials/ banks ETFs in Canada since inception (see below). That said, following earnings season, the large-cap financials, which typically set the tone for the rest of the sector, are leading the…

U.S. Financials: Mid-Caps Look Attractive, Despite Clouds (4 Reasons to Invest)

The U.S. mid-cap financials held up very well in 2022, in what was a very difficult year for the global financials. Risks that had not been seen for decades – like inflation – have returned, and the market’s fears that rising central bank rates could trigger a recession remain high. This has resulted in significant compression in price-to-earnings multiples as the market anticipates clouds ahead. Yet,…

HUM – Top Performing U.S. Financials ETF – Again

Our Hamilton U.S. Small/Mid-Cap Financials ETF (HUM, HUM.U) was the top performing U.S. financials ETF in Canada – again[1]. HUM has now outperformed its competitor ETFs over the following periods: since inception[2], in the last two years, full year 2021, and full year 2022. In 2021, it was the top performing financials ETF in Canada – foreign or domestic[3]. In the last two years – which…

Canadian Banks: TD Buys FHN – A Very Strong Fit

After much speculation in recent years about its appetite for additional U.S. bank M&A, TD offered ~US$13.4 bln in cash to buy First Horizon Corporation (FHN)[1], a Tennessee-based regional bank, in late February, almost 15 years since its last “large” U.S. bank acquisition – Commerce Bancorp. In our view, the acquisition offers many strategic benefits given FHN: (i) is an optimal size, adding material scale with…

Canadian Banks: BMO’s High Risk, High(er) Reward Acquisition of BoW

Bank of Montreal recently announced the acquisition of BNP Paribas’ U.S. retail banking subsidiary, Bank of the West (BoW) for ~C$20 bln – the largest acquisition in Canadian banking history. The transaction is very different from prior acquisitions made by the Canadian banks and is further complicated by the fact that BoW is not publicly traded (wholly owned by BNP), so most Canadian investors have limited…

U.S. Banks: M&A Features Prominently on Q1 Calls

[All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted] As we noted in last week’s Insight, U.S. Financials: Why They Remain Attractive (Especially the Mid-Caps), the Q4 2020 pick-up in U.S. bank M&A – a clear sign of management’s conviction that the economic recovery was well underway – has gained momentum in 2021, including several transactions involving Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (tickers: HUM, HUM-U) and Hamilton…

U.S. Financials: Why They Remain Attractive (Especially the Mid-Caps)

[All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted] One year on from the market depths of the pandemic, it is worth a quick review of how far the U.S. financials have come. Notwithstanding the fact Ontario recently entered another province-wide lockdown, things south of the border look far brighter, especially for the holdings in the Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (tickers: HUM, HUM-U) and much of…

U.S. Banks: The Return of M&A – A Clear Sign of Bankers’ Conviction in the Recovery

All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. As the year draws to a close, the whipsaw nature of 2020 will not soon be forgotten. When the pandemic struck earlier this year and businesses shuttered under direct orders by various governments, how long and how deep the resulting global economic downturn would be was next to impossible to forecast with any sense of accuracy. As businesses…

Hamilton ETFs Announces Proposed Merger of Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) into Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF

Toronto, Ontario – April 28, 2020 – Hamilton Capital Partners Inc. (“Hamilton ETFs”) is pleased to announce the next phase of enhancements to its investment fund platform. Subject to all required unitholder and regulatory approvals, Hamilton ETFs is proposing to merge (the “Merger”) Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) (TSX: HFMU.U, the “Terminating Fund”) into Hamilton U.S. Mid/Small-Cap Financials ETF (proposed TSX ticker: HUM, the “Continuing…

One Chart: U.S. Bank M&A Doubles in 2019 (and Why We Expect More)

In the 10+ years since the global financial crisis, deal values in U.S. bank M&A have been slow to reach pre-crisis levels. This is notable since in the nearly 25 years preceding the financial crisis bank M&A was an important theme (particularly between 1995 to 2007) as the chart below highlights. Note to Reader: This Insight includes references to certain Hamilton ETFs that were active at…

U.S. Bank M&A: Another Accretive MOE, Another Positive Market Reaction

On Monday, this year’s third (sizable) U.S. bank merger-of-equals (“MOE”) was announced, continuing a trend we expected following similar transactions early in 2019. We have previously written that after a multi-year period of muted merger activity that U.S. bank consolidation – particularly among mid-cap banks – was poised to accelerate. We have cited this theme as impacting the U.S. mid-cap financials sector generally and the banking…

U.S. Mid-Caps: Yield Curve False Alarm? 9th Straight Quarter of 10%+ EPS Growth

Since Hamilton U.S. Mid-Cap Financials ETF (USD) (ticker: HFMU.U) was launched in September 2017, the yield curve has flattened. Some market participants have taken this broader market signal to be an accurate predictor of a recession and by extension a credit cycle for banks. However, those interpreting the flattening of the yield curve (spread between the yield on the US 10 year and the Fed funds…

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